Week 4 gives us a full 16-game slate, and the lines tell a story: a batch of near pick-em games in the early window, two heavy home favorites, and a Sunday night showcase in Carolina. Below are our predictions for every game, the current spread, and where we are willing to bet against the number. Lines come straight from our Week 4 pick-em with odds page and are current as of publish; they will move before kickoff, so always re-check before you lock anything in.
Quick Facts
- Week: NFL Week 4, 2026 season
- Slate: 16 games, Thursday Oct 1 through Monday Oct 5
- Main slate: Sunday, October 4 (14 games)
- Biggest spreads: Bears -8.5 vs Jets and Ravens -8.5 vs Titans
- Highest total: Jaguars at Bengals, 51.5
- Our upset picks: Eagles over Rams and Broncos over 49ers
- Free tool: printable pick sheet with every game, spread and O/U
Week 4 Predictions: Every Game
Our pick is the side we would take straight up. Two underdogs we like to win outright are flagged as upsets.
| Matchup (Away at Home) | Spread | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns | Steelers -2.5 | Steelers |
| Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders | Commanders -1.5 | Commanders |
| Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants | Giants -7.5 | Giants |
| Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans | Texans -2.5 | Texans |
| Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Packers -1.5 | Packers |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals | Bengals -2.5 | Bengals |
| Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles | Rams -1.5 | Eagles (UPSET) |
| New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills | Bills -3.5 | Bills |
| New York Jets at Chicago Bears | Bears -8.5 | Bears |
| Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens | Ravens -8.5 | Ravens |
| Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings | Vikings -7.5 | Vikings |
| Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers | 49ers -2.5 | Broncos (UPSET) |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders | Chiefs -5.5 | Chiefs |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks | Seahawks -3.5 | Seahawks |
| Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers | Lions -3.5 | Lions |
| Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | Saints -2.5 | Saints |
Upset Watch
Eagles (+1.5) over Rams. Philadelphia sitting as a home underdog is the kind of number that tends to get bet back down. The Eagles play their best football in the trenches, and at home off a short travel week for Los Angeles, we like them to win it outright rather than just cover.
Broncos (+2.5) over 49ers. Denver travels well and its defense is built to slow a banged-up San Francisco offense. A field goal is not much of a cushion for a 49ers team still juggling injuries, so we will take the points and the outright upset.
Two more to keep an eye on without making them our official pick: Tampa Bay (+1.5 at home vs Green Bay) in a true coin-flip, and Miami (+7.5 at Minnesota), where a full touchdown feels generous if the Dolphins offense finds any rhythm.
Best Bets and Leans
These are opinions, not locks. They reflect where we see value against the current number, nothing more.
- Best bet: Eagles +1.5 vs Rams. A home dog we think wins straight up is our favorite number on the board.
- Lean: Jaguars at Bengals OVER 51.5. Two offenses that can score and two defenses with questions point to a shootout.
- Lean: Colts at Commanders UNDER 50.5. That total is inflated for a game that could tighten up if either defense travels.
- Stay away: Bears -8.5 and Ravens -8.5. Both favorites should win, but laying more than a touchdown in Week 4 is a coin flip we will pass on.
For entertainment only. Odds and totals move, and nothing here is a guarantee. If you choose to wager, set a budget, play responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose. Help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Storylines to Watch
Thursday kickoff in Cleveland. Pittsburgh at Cleveland opens the week with an AFC North grudge match and a low total (40.5) that screams defense and field position.
Two double-digit-caliber favorites. Both the Bears and Ravens are laying 8.5. How they handle expectation as heavy favorites often tells you more than the final score.
Chiefs on the road in the division. Kansas City at Las Vegas is always chippier than the spread suggests, and a 5.5 line leaves room for a backdoor cover.
Sunday night in Carolina. Detroit visits the Panthers under the lights, a spot where the Lions are favored but the primetime stage can flatten a road team.
Printable Week 4 Pick Sheet
Running an office pool or just want to fill in your own picks? Grab the free printable pick sheet. It lists every Week 4 game with the current spread and over/under, plus blank columns to write in your pick and the final score. It is generated right in your browser and opens in a new tab.
Download the printable NFL Week 4 pick sheet (PDF)
More from Sports Brackets
- 2026 NFL Week 4 pick-em with odds: every spread, total and moneyline on one page, plus a printable sheet.
- 2026 NFL Week 4 TV coverage map: what game is on in your market and the national windows.
- 2026 NFL standings: how every team stacks up in the division and conference races.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the best Week 4 upset picks?
Our two flagged upsets are the Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5) to beat the Rams at home and the Denver Broncos (+2.5) to win at San Francisco. Both are underdogs we think win outright, not just cover. Tampa Bay and Miami are the next two we are watching.
Where do the spreads come from?
Spreads and totals are pulled from our Week 4 pick-em with odds page and reflect widely available consensus lines at publish time. Numbers move during the week, so confirm the current line before you make any decision.
Is there a printable pick sheet?
Yes. The button in the printable section builds a free PDF right in your browser with every game, the spread and the over/under, plus blank columns for your pick and the final score. It opens in a new tab so this page stays open behind it.
Are these picks betting advice?
No. Everything here is our opinion for entertainment. We are not offering financial or betting advice. If you choose to wager, do it responsibly, set a budget, and only risk what you can afford to lose.
