Every fall an FCS team knocks off an FBS opponent, and 2026 has plenty of candidates. This is our 2026 FCS over FBS upset watch: the games where a Championship Subdivision program has a real shot to win outright, with the dates and matchups to circle.
2026 Upset Watch: Quick Facts
- Window: the best chances come in September, when FCS teams travel up.
- Usual suspects: South Dakota State, Montana State, Montana, and North Dakota.
- Format: single games, no spread here, just win-or-lose upset potential.
- See also: the full FCS vs FBS games schedule.
2026 FCS over FBS Upset Candidates
| Date | FCS Team | at FBS Team | Why it is live |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 5 | South Dakota State | Northwestern | A perennial FCS title contender opening on the road at a rebuilding Big Ten side. |
| Fri, Sep 11 | Villanova | Louisville | A strong CAA program in a Friday-night spot at an ACC host. |
| Sat, Sep 12 | Montana State | Nevada | A recent FCS finalist visiting a Mountain West team it can match physically. |
| Sat, Sep 12 | UT Martin | West Virginia | An OVC contender with the speed to hang around in Morgantown. |
| Sat, Sep 12 | Illinois State | Northern Illinois | A Missouri Valley side against a MAC team in a true toss-up. |
| Sat, Sep 19 | Montana | Oregon State | A Big Sky power catching a rebuilding Pac-12 remnant early. |
| Sat, Sep 19 | North Dakota | Nebraska | A Missouri Valley visitor with nothing to lose in Lincoln. |
| Sat, Sep 19 | Northern Iowa | Iowa | A rivalry-flavored trip UNI always plays tough. |
| Sat, Sep 19 | Eastern Washington | Washington | A high-scoring Big Sky offense that can keep it close. |
| Sat, Sep 5 | North Alabama | Arkansas | A rising ASUN-UAC program taking a big early swing in the SEC. |
These are our picks for the games most likely to produce an FCS-over-FBS result in 2026. For every FCS-vs-FBS matchup on the calendar, see our 2026 FCS vs FBS games schedule.
Why FCS Teams Pull These Upsets
FCS upsets are not flukes so much as timing. FBS teams schedule these games early, often before they have found their footing, while the visiting FCS side has veterans, a clean game plan, and everything to gain. Add a night kickoff or a long trip for the host, and the gap narrows fast. It does not happen every week, but across a full September it happens somewhere.
Frequently Asked Questions
Do FCS teams ever beat FBS teams?
Yes. Every season multiple FCS programs beat FBS opponents, sometimes ranked ones. These upsets usually come in September, when FBS teams are still rounding into form.
Which FCS teams are most likely to upset an FBS team in 2026?
Perennial contenders like South Dakota State, Montana State, Montana, and North Dakota headline the 2026 FCS over FBS upset watch, along with OVC and CAA sides like UT Martin and Villanova.
When are the best FCS over FBS upset chances in 2026?
The strongest chances come in the first four weekends of September, when nearly all FCS vs FBS games are scheduled.
More 2026 FCS Coverage
