Since the women’s tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1994, #1 seeds are the most dominant force in all of sports, winning 100% of their first-round games (128–0 record). This dominance continues through the Final Four, where #1 seeds have won 28 of the 31 national championships in the modern era. While a #12 seed has a 25% chance of upsetting a #5, statistically, the safest women’s bracket is one that picks all four #1 seeds to reach the Final Four.
Updated Historical Seed Performance Tables
| Seed Matchup | Record | Win % | Notes |
| 1 vs. 16 | 128–0 | 100% | A #16 has never beaten a #1. |
| 2 vs. 15 | 128–0 | 100% | A #15 has never beaten a #2. |
| 3 vs. 14 | 125–3 | 97.7% | #14 seeds have only 3 all-time wins. |
| 4 vs. 13 | 119–9 | 93.0% | #13 seeds win roughly 1 in 14 games. |
| 5 vs. 12 | 96–32 | 75.0% | The most common women’s upset. |
| 6 vs. 11 | 93–35 | 72.7% | #11 seeds are dangerous in the 1st round. |
| 7 vs. 10 | 82–46 | 64.1% | More common than the men’s 7/10 upset. |
| 8 vs. 9 | 68–60 | 53.1% | Very close to a coin flip. |
Why Does Looking at Historical Records by Seed Help with My Bracket?
Well, one of the best parts about Women’s March Madness is that there is going to be at least one if not many upsets in the early rounds of play. All teams have hope going into their first games. Some of them hope == becoming Cinderella. The Women’s tournament first expanded to 64 teams in 1994. So, you can use this historical data to help inform your choices when filling out a bracket.
The women’s numbers are different from the men’s when it comes to picking their bracket. Entering the 2026 Women’s NCAA Tournament, the #15 and #16 seeds have not won a game. The #13 and #14 seeds have won a total of 12 times.
Once Selection Sunday is complete, check the 2026 Women’s March Madness Schedule for game times and locations.
Farthest Advance by Women’s Seed (Modern Era)
| Seed | Best Finish | Most Recent / Key Example |
| #1 | Champion | South Carolina (2025), South Carolina (2024) |
| #2 | Champion | Baylor (2019) |
| #3 | Champion | North Carolina (1994), UConn (1995) |
| #5 | Final Four | Louisville (2022) |
| #7 | Final Four | Minnesota (2004) |
| #9 | Final Four | Arkansas (1998) |
| #10 | Elite Eight | Creighton (2022) |
| #11 | Elite Eight | Dayton (2015), Gonzaga (2011) |
The “Invincibility” of the Top Two Seeds
The single most important stat for a women’s bracket is this: A #1 or #2 seed has NEVER lost a first-round game. In the men’s game, a #16 and multiple #15s have pulled off miracles. In the women’s game, seeds #1 and #2 are a perfect 256–0 in the Round of 64. Lock them in.
South Carolina’s Dynastic Run (2024–2025)
The 2024 and 2025 tournaments were defined by the South Carolina Gamecocks. Their dominant, near-undefeated runs (winning both national titles as a #1 seed) cement the idea that the top overall seed in the women’s tournament is almost impossible to pick against. If a team enters 2026 with an undefeated record as the #1 overall seed, make them your champion.
The #12 vs. #5: Your Only Cinderella Pick
If you want to pick an upset in the first round, the #12 seed is your best and almost only option. #12 seeds win 25% of the time (32–96). Do not waste an upset pick on a #13, #14, or #15 seed; the talent gap is too vast.
How to Use Historical Records by Seed for Your March Madness Picks?
So, using this information is just a step. You will want to decide how risky or risk adverse you intend to be with your picks. The top seeds historically have the best winning percentage. Only six of the seeds have a winning record (#1 through #6). #7 seeds tend to lose more to #10’s in the first round.
Similar deal with the #8 seeds. In three years, we saw all No. 1 seeds reach the Final Four (2012, 2015, and 2018). We have a strong field this year, so you will just have to use your best judgment. We have some additional bracket tips you can check out as well. Good luck.
Looking for the men’s tournament? See our updated Men’s Historical Seed Records guide.
