With Super Bowl LX now wrapped (Seattle Seahawks took a convincing 29-13 victory over the New England Patriots, with Kenneth Walker III named MVP), the spotlight shifts fully to the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics (running Feb 6-22). As the Games progress, with medal odds fluctuating on futures like “Most Golds,” event winners in biathlon, luge, speed skating, and more, learning how to use the Implied Probability Calculator is your go-to tool for turning betting odds into clear win percentages. Use it to identify value bets, compare sportsbooks, or craft smarter parlays during the Olympics.
Link to the tool: https://sportsbrackets.net/implied-probability-calculator/
What Is Implied Probability?
Implied probability translates betting odds into the estimated percentage chance of an outcome occurring. Bookmakers build in a margin (vig/overround), so probabilities for all possible outcomes in a market typically sum to more than 100% (e.g., 104-110%).
Key formulas (handled automatically by our tool):
- American odds (negative/favorite): |odds| / (|odds| + 100) × 100
Example: -150 → 150 / (150 + 100) = 60% - American odds (positive/underdog): 100 / (odds + 100) × 100
Example: +200 → 100 / (200 + 100) = 33.33% - Decimal odds: 1 / decimal × 100
Example: 2.50 → 1 / 2.50 = 40% - Fractional odds: denominator / (numerator + denominator) × 100
Example: 3/1 → 1 / (3 + 1) = 25%
Our tool helps alleviate the need for you to do manual math needed. Just input and go.
How to Use the Implied Probability Calculator (Step-by-Step)
Here are your step-by-step directions on how to use the implied probability calculator.
- Go to the Tool: Visit https://sportsbrackets.net/implied-probability-calculator/. It’s completely free, no login required, and works on mobile/desktop.
- Input Your Odds: Enter in any format:
- American (e.g., -110 or +300)
- Decimal (e.g., 1.91 or 4.00)
- Fractional (e.g., 5/2 or 1/1)
- Instant Results: The tool auto-converts across formats and displays:
- Implied Probability (the core % win chance)
- Equivalent odds in other formats
- Analyze & Apply:
- Compare to your own assessment: If implied % is 55% but you estimate 65% true chance (after vig), it may be a value bet.
- For multi-outcome events (e.g., podium finishes or “Most Golds”), check the overround (sum >100%).
- Build parlays: Multiply individual probabilities for the combined chance (pair with our Parlay Calculator for payouts).
- Advanced Tips: Use linked no-vig converters on the page for fairer comparisons across books.
Real 2026 Winter Olympics Betting Examples
(odds are approximate/hypothetical from major sportsbooks like FanDuel/BetMGM as of late Feb 8. Always verify live lines, as they shift fast post-events.) Here are some examples for you to work through.
Example 1: Norway to Win Most Gold Medals (Futures)
Current futures often list Norway around -180 to -200 (heavy favorite with 3 golds already, leading the count).
- Enter -190 → Tool shows ~65.5% implied probability.
If you think their biathlon/cross-country strength pushes true odds higher (e.g., 70%+), it could offer value despite the vig.
Example 2: USA Figure Skating Individual Medal Prop (Post-Team Gold)
With momentum from the team event (Ilia Malinin’s 200.03-point free skate), men’s singles odds for a U.S. medal might sit at -130.
- Enter -130 → ~56.5% implied.
If Malinin’s quad-heavy style suits upcoming programs, and you peg his true medal chance at 62%+, shop lines or bet.
Example 3: Day 3 Prop – Women’s Luge Gold
A top slider (e.g., German or Italian favorite) at -160.
- Enter -160 → 61.5% implied.
Factor in track conditions or recent training—use the tool to compare vs. underdogs at +500 (16.7% implied) for potential upsets.
Example 4: Simple Olympics Parlay
Combine: Norway biathlon win (-220, ~68.8%) + women’s speed skating 1000m favorite (-150, 60%).
- Individual probs from tool → Multiply: 0.688 × 0.60 ≈ 41.3% combined implied chance.
This helps gauge parlay risk/reward.
Quick Tips for Olympics Betting Success
- Adjust for Vig: Always factor in the overround. Our tool’s no-vig links help reveal true edges.
- Value Hunting: Bet when your estimated probability exceeds implied (post-vig).
- Avoid Pitfalls: Don’t chase longshots blindly; monitor live shifts after events like Day 3 (alpine combined, luge women’s, ski jumping normal hill).
- Olympics Edge: Futures and props change hourly—use daily during the Games.
Bookmark the calculator and check our Olympics hub for live updates, schedules, brackets, and printables. Try it for tomorrow’s events. We also have our base odds converter up here too for you to use.
Betting carries risk; please gamble responsibly. Odds change; this is educational/info only.
