The 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan-Cortina are just weeks away (starting February 6), and at SportsBrackets.net, we’re excited to preview the predicted medal tally as part of our ongoing coverage. With the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics just weeks away (prelims Feb 4, Opening Feb 6 at San Siro, Closing Feb 22 at Verona Arena), medal predictions are heating up too. Over 3,500 athletes from 93 countries will compete for 195 medals in 16 disciplines (ski mountaineering debut).
Early models and recent World Cup/form (2024 – 2025 seasons) point to Norway leading the medal tally (consistent top performer in recent Games, strong in cross-country/biathlon/alpine), with USA and Germany close challengers. The U.S. roster (announced Jan 22–26) features stars like Mikaela Shiffrin and Lindsey Vonn (alpine), Chloe Kim (snowboarding halfpipe three-peat chase), Ilia Malinin (“Quad God” figure skating), and Jessie Diggins (cross-country). Here’s our updated predicted tally, favorites to watch, and key storylines. Perfect for tracking alongside our full schedule.
Last updated: January 26, 2026: Rosters finalized (Team USA 232 athletes announced Jan 22–26); predictions preliminary and subject to change.
How is the Predicted Medal Tally Determined?
To give you a sense of the landscape, we’ve referenced several sources, including fan-driven analyses, drawing from world champions and recent results. These are early projections for the 2026 Winter Olympics, and can shift with form, injuries, and breakout performances, but they provide a fun baseline for bracket planning.
Norway is widely tipped to top the standings, with Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, and Canada also in strong contention across disciplines like cross-country skiing, speed skating, and hockey. For the full event timeline, check our detailed 2026 Olympics Schedules. And if ice hockey is your focus, don’t miss our Hockey Schedule for 2026.
Early Favorites: Predicted Gold Medals
Gold medals often set the tone for the overall table. Here’s a snapshot from fan-sourced data highlighting the tight race:
| Rank | Country | Predicted Gold Medals |
| 1 | Norway | 22 |
| 2 | Germany | 22 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 20 |
| 4 | USA | 19 |
| 5 | Canada | 15 |
| 6 | Sweden | 12 |
| 7 | France | 12 |
| 8 | Japan | 10 |
| 9 | Italy | 8 |
| 10 | Republic of Korea | 8 |
Norway and Germany are projected neck-and-neck for the most golds, with the Dutch potentially excelling in speed skating.
Early Favorites: Predicted Total Medals
Total medals reward depth across sports. Canada could climb high thanks to strengths in freestyle skiing, curling, and more:
| Rank | Country | Predicted Total Medals |
| 1 | Norway | 69 |
| 2 | Germany | 60 |
| 3 | Canada | 57 |
| 4 | USA | 50 |
| 5 | Netherlands | 45 |
| 6 | Sweden | 34 |
| 7 | Italy | 34 |
| 8 | France | 31 |
| 9 | Austria | 29 |
| 10 | Japan | 26 |
As the host nation, Italy is expected to get a home-crowd boost on familiar snow and ice.
Favorites to Watch
- Alpine Skiing: Mikaela Shiffrin (most decorated skier ever, 107 World Cup wins) and Lindsey Vonn (41, comeback after 2019 retirement/knee replacement; Cortina favorite) lead USA women’s team (stacked with Paula Moltzan, Breezy Johnson). Men’s: Ryan Cochran-Siegle. Switzerland’s Marco Odermatt dominant.
- Snowboarding: Chloe Kim (halfpipe three-peat chase; gold in 2018/2022) headlines USA.
- Figure Skating: Ilia Malinin (“Quad God,” first quadruple axel; unbeaten streak) leads USA men’s. Women’s: Alysa Liu (world champ 2025), Amber Glenn, Isabeau Levito (deep team).
- Cross-Country: Jessie Diggins (USA, multiple medals) strong contender.
Other: NHL players return for men’s hockey; ski mountaineering debut.
What This Means for Your Brackets
The Winter Olympics are full of surprises. Think upsets in Sochi or PyeongChang. Use these insights as a starting point for your medal pools or predictions. Cross-reference with our 2026 Olympics Schedules to track medal events, and dive into the Hockey Schedule for 2026 for those pivotal matchups that could swing tallies for powerhouses like Canada and the USA.
- Full 2026 Winter Olympics Schedule
Day-by-day calendar, key medal events, venues guide (Milano ice, Cortina alpine, Valtellina freestyle/snowboard, Val di Fiemme nordic), and printable PDF calendar. Updated January 26, 2026.
→ 2026 Winter Olympics Schedule: Full Day-by-Day Calendar, Key Medal Events, Printable PDF & Venues Guide (Milano-Cortina)
We’ll keep updating with live results, challenges, and analysis right here on SportsBrackets.net.
