2026 NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks & Predictions: Upset Alerts, Playoff Sleepers & Bracket Breakdown

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  • Post published:January 4, 2026
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2026 NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks

The 2026 NFL Playoffs are underway, starting with a thrilling Wild Card Weekend (January 10-12, 2026). Following the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 26-24 victory over the Baltimore Ravens in the Week 18 finale to secure the AFC North and No. 4 seed, the bracket is set. The Denver Broncos (AFC No. 1) and Seattle Seahawks (NFC No. 1) receive byes, paving the way for six compelling games.

This slate highlights emerging stars, defensive showdowns, and upset possibilities. Below, we analyze each matchup with picks against the spread (ATS), straight-up winners, upset alerts, and sleeper teams poised for a run. All times ET; lines as of January 5, 2026 (subject to change). Schedules verified via ESPN and NFL.com.

*Updated lines as of January 5th evening.

Wild Card Weekend Schedule & Matchups

Saturday, January 10

  • 4:30 p.m.: (5) Los Angeles Rams @ (4) Carolina Panthers (FOX, FOX Deportes)
  • 8:00 p.m.: (7) Green Bay Packers @ (2) Chicago Bears (Prime Video)

Sunday, January 11

  • 1:00 p.m.: (6) Buffalo Bills @ (3) Jacksonville Jaguars (CBS, Paramount+)
  • 4:30 p.m.: (6) San Francisco 49ers @ (3) Philadelphia Eagles (FOX, FOX Deportes)
  • 8:00 p.m.: (7) Los Angeles Chargers @ (2) New England Patriots (NBC, Peacock, Universo)

Monday, January 12

  • 8:00 p.m.: (5) Houston Texans @ (4) Pittsburgh Steelers (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+/ESPN Deportes; ManningCast on ESPN2/ESPN+)

2026 NFL Wild Card Round Game-by-Game Picks & Predictions

Lines updated as of January 5, 2026—subject to change. Check latest odds at DraftKings/FanDuel.”

  1. Rams @ Panthers (Saturday, 4:30 p.m.)
    Matthew Stafford leads the Rams’ potent offense against Bryce Young’s gritty Panthers, who clinched the NFC South. Carolina’s home-field grit could keep it close, but the Rams’ experience and depth shine through.
    Updated Pick: Rams -10.5 (straight-up win; cover possible in a dominant performance)
    No upset alert—Rams remain the safest bet on the board.
  2. Packers @ Bears (Saturday, 8:00 p.m.)
    A heated NFC North rematch. Chicago’s breakout season gives them a defensive edge at home, but Green Bay’s late surge adds intrigue.
    Updated Pick: Bears -1.5 (straight-up win)
    Sleeper vibe on Packers—value as small road dogs if they force turnovers.
  3. Bills @ Jaguars (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
    Josh Allen faces a Jaguars team on an eight-game heater. Jacksonville’s home dominance challenges Buffalo’s road inconsistencies.
    Upset Alert: Jaguars +1.5 (outright win potential if they protect home field)
    Pick: Jaguars cover; lean outright for value.
  4. 49ers @ Eagles (Sunday, 4:30 p.m.)
    Rematch of recent epics. Philly’s elite defense vs. San Francisco’s resilient (if banged-up) squad—expect a grinder.
    Updated Pick: Eagles -3.5 (win, but 49ers cover in a close one)
    Upset Alert low, but 49ers +3.5 has solid value.
  5. Chargers @ Patriots (Sunday, 8:00 p.m.)
    Justin Herbert’s explosiveness tests New England’s stout D. The Pats thrived at home down the stretch, but L.A.’s pass rush might disrupt.
    Updated Pick: Patriots -3.5 (straight-up win)
    No major upset—home advantage holds.
  6. Texans @ Steelers (Monday, 8:00 p.m.)
    Houston’s momentum collides with Pittsburgh’s physical, Tomlin-coached unit fresh off clinching.
    Updated Pick: Texans -3.5 (straight-up win; cover the spread)
    Upset Alert: Steelers +3.5 (best home dog value—potential for Pittsburgh to keep it close or pull the upset).

Upset Alerts & Playoff Sleepers

  • Biggest Upset Potential → Steelers over Texans (home dog with Rodgers/Metcalf clicking; +3.5 offers great value).
  • Sleeper Teams to Watch → Jacksonville Jaguars (as small home dogs, a win sets up a favorable path) and Los Angeles Rams (pedigree makes them a Super Bowl threat despite road start).
  • Safe Bets → Rams and Eagles advance comfortably.

Full Bracket Projections

Winners move to the Divisional Round (Jan. 17-18):

  • AFC: Patriots/Chargers winner @ Broncos; Jaguars/Bills winner @ Steelers/Texans winner.
  • NFC: Rams/Panthers winner @ Seahawks; Eagles/49ers winner @ Bears/Packers winner.

Grab our free printable 2026 NFL Playoff bracket for pools and tracking. Wild Card Weekend promises drama-anticipate tight contests and at least one surprise. Return for Divisional previews and refreshed Super Bowl odds. Who’s your pick? If your favorite team is out of the mix already, we have the future NFL schedules posted up here for you too. 

Data and lines current as of January 5, 2026. Schedules sourced from ESPN and NFL.com.

Author

  • Will Lewis

    Have been covering sports of all types for more than 18 years. March Madness is his favorite time of year before we hit the NBA and NHL playoffs. Will is a lifelong Kentucky Wildcats fan and rooted for the Bengals way back when Joe Montana dashed our hopes and dreams. Now a Padres fan as well. He covers all sports here at Sports Brackets.