The expanded 12-team College Football Playoff kicks off tomorrow with four first-round games on campus sites. Home-field advantage matters, but lower seeds have already shown they can win on the road in bowl settings. Here are the matchups most likely to deliver upsets, plus our straight-up picks and quick notes.
2025 College Football Playoff First-Round Schedule (Dec 19-20)
Here’s the 2025 college football playoff first-round schedule for you.
- Friday, Dec. 19
No. 9 Alabama (9-3) at No. 8 Oklahoma (9-3) – 8:00 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN) - Saturday, Dec. 20
No. 10 Miami (Fla.) (10-2) at No. 7 Texas A&M (9-3) – 12:00 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)
No. 11 Tulane (10-2) at No. 6 Ole Miss (9-3) – 3:30 p.m. ET (TNT/truTV/Max)
No. 12 James Madison (10-2) at No. 5 Oregon (11-2) – 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT/truTV/Max)
Biggest Upset Threats
- Alabama over Oklahoma (Highest upset potential)
Early NCAA bracket challenge data shows this game is basically a coin flip – Alabama is picked to win by roughly 50% of entries. Oklahoma is coming off a rough finish, while Alabama has the talent edge and playoff experience under Kalen DeBoer. If Jalen Milroe protects the ball, the Tide could roll into the quarterfinals as a road winner. - Tulane over Ole Miss
Tulane finished 10-2 with a strong AAC title win and has a balanced offense that controls the clock. Ole Miss relies heavily on Jaxson Dart and a deep receiving corps, but the Rebels have shown vulnerability against physical teams. A low-scoring, grind-it-out game favors the Green Wave.*** Note, this is a change from previous picks, so check the latest right before the game. Ltos of moving parts with this one. - Miami over Texas A&M
Texas A&M is favored at home, but Miami has the talent to pull the road upset and bust brackets. Veteran quarterback Carson Beck brings big-game experience, while freshman star Malachi Toney and the explosive skill group can score in bunches. The Hurricanes lost two close games late in the season but have one of the best offensive lines in the playoff field. If they protect Beck and exploit the Aggies’ pass defense early, this one could flip fast in College Station. - James Madison over Oregon (Least likely but biggest payoff)
Oregon is a heavy favorite (93% in early picks), and rightfully so – the Ducks have one of the best offenses in the country. James Madison is a solid Group of Five champ, but pulling this off on the road in Eugene would be the biggest first-round stunner.
Our Quick Picks
- Miami over Texas A&M
- Alabama over Oklahoma
- Ole Miss over Tulane
- Oregon over James Madison
That gives two road upsets (Miami and Alabama) for some bracket chaos flavor.
2025 College Football Playoff Bracket Upsets – Infographic
Here you go. Our 2025 college football playoff first round upsets in an infographic for you.
Get Your Picks In Before Kickoff
Brackets and pick’em sheets lock once the first game starts tomorrow night. Download everything you need right here:
- Printable 2025-26 College Football Playoff Bracket (Full 12-Team PDF)
- First-Round Pick’em Sheet – Free Printable PDF (Dec 19-20 Games)
- Full Bowl Pick’em Sheets + Confidence Points
- All 47 Bowl Predictions & Winners
Who do you have pulling off the biggest upset this weekend? Drop your first-round picks in the comments.
Track perfect brackets live with NCAA here: Perfect Bracket Tracker and our post on picking bracket winners here.
