The 2025 NFL Playoff picture entering into week 14 is set (for now) as we hit December. Week 13 delivered the chaos we’ve come to expect from the playoff chase. With tiebreakers tightening and bubble teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans lurking, every snap feels like a playoff audition. Below, we break down the updated standings through games of December 1, projected seeds if the season ended today, key scenarios, and what Week 14’s massive slate means for the hunt.
2025 NFL Playoff Picture – Week 13 Rollup
Here’s the 2025 NFL playoff picture for you after the week 13 chaos. Thanksgiving’s tripleheader set the tone with the Green Bay Packers handing the Detroit Lions a divisional defeat, the Dallas Cowboys upsetting the Kansas City Chiefs to breathe life into the NFC East, and the Bengals taking down the Ravens in a pivotal AFC North clash. Black Friday saw the Chicago Bears upset the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles 24-15, while Sunday’s slate featured the Carolina Panthers’ 31-28 upset over the Los Angeles Rams, and the Jacksonville Jaguars’ continued surge with a gritty win over the Indianapolis Colts, flipping the AFC South on its head. Monday Night Football capped it off with the New England Patriots beating the New York Giants, extending their win streak to 10 and reclaiming the AFC’s No. 1 perch.
These results have reshuffled the deck a good bit: The Bears jumped to the NFC’s top spot, the Jaguars now lead the AFC South, the Rams’ grip on the West loosened, and new eliminations hit the Raiders and Titans. For the latest official view, check the NFL Playoff Picture. Grab our printable NFL playoff bracket PDF to fill out your predictions, and don’t miss the Week 14 NFL pick’em sheet or confidence pool.
2025-26 AFC Playoff Picture
The Patriots (11-2) are back atop the conference after the win over the Giants, holding a two-game cushion in the East and the best record in football. The Broncos (10-2) remain locked in as the West’s frontrunners with a nine-game streak, while the Jaguars’ takeover of the South has the Colts scrambling. The wild-card race is a dogfight: The Bills and Chargers hold firm, but the Texans’ defense keeps them in striking distance. It is still theoretically possible for the Bengals to make it too after Joe led them to victory on Turkey Day.
Current AFC Standings and Playoff Odds
(Records through Dec. 1; Playoff % via ESPN FPI; Division % via simulation models)
| Division/Team | W-L-T | PCT | Division Lead % | Playoff % | Key Notes |
| East | |||||
| New England Patriots | 11-2-0 | .846 | 99% | 100% | Clinched playoff berth; 10-win streak; H2H edge over DEN |
| Buffalo Bills | 8-4-0 | .667 | 1% | 98% | WC lock; toughest remaining sched (vs. PIT, @NE, vs. KC) |
| Miami Dolphins | 5-7-0 | .417 | <1% | 2% | Three-game win streak but eliminated |
| New York Jets | 3-9-0 | .250 | 0% | 0% | Eliminated |
| North | |||||
| Baltimore Ravens | 7-6-0 | .583 | 72% | 100% | Clinched playoff; lost to CIN on Thanksgiving but own H2H |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-6-0 | .500 | 25% | 45% | Two-game skid; need help in wild-card hunt |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 4-8-0 | .333 | 3% | 6-7% | Have to win out and get some help. |
| Cleveland Browns | 3-9-0 | .250 | 0% | 0% | Eliminated |
| South | |||||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8-4-0 | .667 | 85% | 99% | Took AFC South lead with win over IND; H2H tiebreaker |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8-4-0 | .667 | 15% | 95% | Two-game skid drops them to WC6; rematch vs. JAX in Week 14 |
| Houston Texans | 7-5-0 | .583 | <1% | 85% | Four straight wins; No. 1 defense keeps WC hopes alive |
| Tennessee Titans | 1-11-0 | .083 | 0% | 0% | Eliminated in Week 13 |
| West | |||||
| Denver Broncos | 10-2-0 | .833 | 98% | 100% | Clinched playoff; nine-game streak; own H2H over KC |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 8-4-0 | .667 | 2% | 92% | WC3 holder; Justin Herbert’s hand injury a concern |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-6-0 | .500 | <1% | 25% | Thanksgiving loss to DAL; OT win vs. IND not enough |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2-10-0 | .167 | 0% | 0% | Eliminated in Week 13 |
Tiebreaker Reminders: Head-to-head (H2H) first, then conference record, then strength of victory (SOV). Broncos hold H2H over Patriots for No. 1 seed right now. Jaguars-Colts split remaining for South control.
Projected AFC Seeds (If the 2025-26 Season Ended Today)
- Patriots (East winner) – Bye
- Broncos (West winner) – Bye
- Jaguars (South winner)
- Bills (WC1)
- Chargers (WC2)
- Colts (WC3)
- Ravens (WC4)
In the Hunt: Texans (one game back of WC), Steelers (need sweep to stay alive).
Clinched: Patriots, Broncos (playoff berths).
Eliminated: Bengals, Browns, Dolphins, Jets, Raiders, Titans.
Week 14 Impact: Jaguars at Colts decides South leader. Bills vs. Steelers could eliminate PIT. Texans face tough test at Jets but hold tiebreaker edge over BAL in WC.
2025-26 NFC Playoff Picture
The Bears’ Black Friday statement win over the Eagles, paired with the Rams’ upset loss to the Panthers, crowned Chicago as the conference’s new kingpin at 9-3. The Eagles (8-4) slipped to No. 3 despite holding the East lead, while the Cowboys’ hot streak vaulted them into the mix. The Packers’ sweep of the Lions keeps the North wide open, and the Buccaneers cling to the South. Wild cards are fluid: Seahawks and 49ers are surging in the West, but the Lions and Cowboys are knocking.
Current NFC Standings and Playoff Odds
(Records through Dec. 1; Playoff % via ESPN FPI; Division % via simulation models)
| Division/Team | W-L-T | PCT | Division Lead % | Playoff % | Key Notes |
| East | |||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 8-4-0 | .667 | 65% | 98% | Two-game skid; lead DAL by 1.5 but Cowboys own divisional tiebreaker (3-1) |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7-5-1 | .583 | 35% | 75% | Three-game win streak; Thanksgiving upset over KC revives hopes |
| Washington Commanders | 3-9-0 | .250 | 0% | 0% | Seven-game skid; eliminated |
| New York Giants | 2-10-0 | .167 | 0% | 0% | Seven losses in row; eliminated |
| North | |||||
| Chicago Bears | 9-3-0 | .750 | 68% | 100% | Five-game streak; new No. 1 seed after PHI loss, CAR upset |
| Green Bay Packers | 8-4-0 | .667 | 32% | 99% | Swept DET; H2H edge over CHI but Bears own conference record |
| Detroit Lions | 7-5-0 | .583 | <1% | 60% | Thanksgiving loss to GB; still WC contender |
| Minnesota Vikings | 4-8-0 | .333 | 0% | 0% | Four-game skid; eliminated |
| South | |||||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7-5-0 | .583 | 75% | 90% | WC4 lock; steady in South |
| Carolina Panthers | 5-7-0 | .417 | 20% | 15% | Upset over LAR keeps faint hopes; three-game skid before this |
| Atlanta Falcons | 4-8-0 | .333 | 5% | 3% | Eliminated |
| New Orleans Saints | 2-10-0 | .167 | 0% | 0% | Eliminated |
| West | |||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 9-3-0 | .750 | 55% | 100% | Clinched West; upset loss to CAR drops them to No. 2 overall |
| Seattle Seahawks | 9-3-0 | .750 | 40% | 99% | Two-game win streak; H2H loss to LAR but better SOV |
| San Francisco 49ers | 8-4-0 | .667 | 5% | 85% | Three wins in row; H2H over SEA |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3-9-0 | .250 | 0% | 0% | Four-game skid; eliminated |
Tiebreaker Reminders: H2H first, then divisional record, then conference record. Rams hold H2H over Seahawks for West/No. 1 seed. Bears own conference record edge over Packers.
Projected NFC Seeds (If Season Ended Today)
- Bears (North winner) – Bye
- Rams (West winner)
- Eagles (East winner)
- Buccaneers (South winner)
- Seahawks (WC1)
- Packers (WC2)
- Cowboys (WC3)
In the Hunt: Lions (one game back of GB), 49ers (pushing for WC), Panthers (longshot after upset).
Clinched: Rams (West).
Eliminated: Cardinals, Commanders, Falcons, Giants, Saints, Vikings.
Week 14 Impact: Bears at Packers for North control. Seahawks at Rams flips West tiebreaker. Cowboys at Lions pits two WC hopefuls; winner gains massive edge.
Clinched, Eliminated, and On the Bubble
- Clinched Playoff Spots: Patriots, Broncos, Rams, Ravens
- Clinched Division: Rams (West)
- Eliminated (New in Week 13): Raiders, Titans; total now includes Browns, Bengals, Dolphins, Jets, Vikings, Commanders, Giants, Saints, Falcons, Cardinals
- Bubble Watch: Steelers and Texans in AFC (must win out); Lions and 49ers in NFC (tough schedules ahead)
Week 14’s slate, headlined by divisional grudge matches, could lock in more berths and bury pretenders. Stay tuned. If you’re already looking forward to the 2026 NFL Week 1 schedule, here you go, and we will have the complete 2026-27 NFL schedules up here for you as we move along.
