Since the tournament expanded in 1985, #1 seeds remain the safest bet, winning 98.7% of their first-round games (162–2 record). While the 2024 tournament saw #11 seed NC State make a miracle Final Four run, the 2025 tournament was dominated by top seeds, with all four #1 seeds reaching the Final Four for the first time in 17 years. Statistically, the #12 vs. #5 upset remains the most reliable “Cinderella” pick, with #12 seeds winning approximately 35% of the time.
Updated Historical Seed Performance Tables
Round of 64: Records by Seed Matchup (1985–2025)
This table now reflects the 158–2 record for #1 seeds and updated counts for common upsets.
Download your 2026 Printable March Madness Bracket here once the seeds are locked on Selection Sunday.
| Seed Matchup | Record | Win % | Notes |
| 1 vs. 16 | 162–2 | 98.7% | Only losses: UMBC (2018), FDU (2023) |
| 2 vs. 15 | 153–11 | 93.3% | #15 seeds are 11–153 all-time |
| 3 vs. 14 | 141–23 | 86.0% | #14 seeds have 23 all-time wins |
| 4 vs. 13 | 131–33 | 79.9% | #13 seeds win roughly 1 in 5 games |
| 5 vs. 12 | 107–57 | 65.2% | The most famous upset line |
| 6 vs. 11 | 102–62 | 62.2% | #11 seeds (like NC State ’24) are dangerous |
| 7 vs. 10 | 102–62 | 62.2% | Almost identical to the 6/11 line |
| 8 vs. 9 | 79–85 | 48.2% | The #9 seed actually leads this series |
Farthest Advance by Seed (Modern Era)
| Seed | Best Finish | Most Recent / Key Example |
| #1 | Champion | Florida (2025), UConn (2024) |
| #2 | Champion | Villanova (2016) |
| #3 | Champion | UConn (2011), Florida (2025 finalist) |
| #4 | Champion | UConn (2023) |
| #6 | Champion | Kansas (1988) |
| #7 | Champion | UConn (2014) |
| #8 | Champion | Villanova (1985) |
| #11 | Final Four | NC State (2024), UCLA (2021) |
How Does Looking at History Records Help with My Bracket Challenge Entry?
By checking out the historical record, it can help inform us for how we might see some of the outcomes turn out this season. This is especially true when we’re trying to pick out a Cinderella or two in a bracket challenge entry. All of the data comes from NCAA.org. You will find the men’s data varies from the women’s.
The top seeds have the most wins and titles with 25 championships. Seeds 1 through 6 have overall winning records. While #7 seeds have a winning record against #10 seeds, they lost to 10’s at a higher rate than they win against #2 or #15 seeds in the next round. Here’s the data for you to check out. The data is since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
How Can You Use Historical Records by Seed?
Looking at seeds in the past can help you out when you just flat out don’t know anything about the two teams. If you don’t watch a ton of college basketball, then you probably are like my spouse and have to google the school’s name to see where they are located. That’s ok. Sometimes it feels like there are a million DI schools out there.
The 2025 “Chalk” Correction
After years of high-seed chaos (including #16 FDU beating #1 Purdue in 2023), the 2025 tournament saw a return to order. For the first time since 2008, every #1 seed made the Final Four. This serves as a reminder for 2026 bracket-fillers: while upsets are flashy, the Final Four is almost always dominated by teams seeded 1 through 3.
The “Power Conference” Surge
In 2025, the SEC set a record by sending 14 teams to the tournament. When picking your 2026 bracket, look at conference depth. Teams from the Big 12 and SEC often have higher “Expected Wins” (PASE) because they are battle-tested by rigorous regular-season schedules.
The #11 Seed is the New #12
While the 5-vs-12 upset is the most talked about, #11 seeds have become significantly more successful in reaching the second weekend. NC State’s 2024 run to the Final Four and the success of SEC double-digit seeds in 2025 suggest that the talent gap in the middle of the bracket has almost entirely evaporated.
Ready to apply these stats? Check the official 2026 March Madness Schedule for game times.
